DR NOOR UL HAQ
Pakistan is presently facing a serious energy crisis. Despite strong economic growth during the past decade and consequent rising demand for energy, no worthwhile steps have been taken to install new capacity for generation of the required energy sources. Now, the demand exceeds supply and hence “load-shedding” is a common phenomenon through frequent power shutdowns. Pakistan needs about 14000-15000MW electricity per day, and the demand is likely to rise to approximately 20,000 MW per day by 2010. Presently, it can produce about 11, 500 MW per day and thus there is a shortfall of about 3000-4000MW per day. This shortage is badly affecting industry, commerce and daily life of people.
All possible measures need to be adopted, i.e., to conserve energy at all levels, and use all available sources to enhance production of energy. It seems that the government is considering importing energy from Iran and Central Asian Republics and using indigenous sources, such as, hydel, coal, waste, wind, and solar power, as well as other alternate and renewable energy sources, besides nuclear power plants for production of energy. Needless to say that if the country wishes to continue its economic development and improve the quality of life of its people, it has to make serious efforts towards framing a coherent energy policy.
The Factfile includes selected articles and news items on the subject appearing in the media from 2nd July 2004 till 10th July 2008.
July 10, 2008. Noor ul Haq Energy Crisis in Pakistan 1
PAKISTAN: POWER CRISIS FEARED BY 2007
The country may plunge into energy crisis by the year 2007 due to rising electricity demand which enters into double digit figure following increasing sale of electrical and electronic appliances on lease finance, it is reliably learnt Thursday.
“The country may face energy crisis by the year 2007 following healthy growth of 13 per cent in electricity demand during the last quarter, which will erode surplus production in absence of commissioning of any new power generation project during this financial year,” informed sources told The Nation.
As per Pakistan Economic Survey 2003-04, electricity consumption has increased by 8.6 per cent during first three-quarter of last fiscal year. However, a top level WAPDA official maintained that electricity demand surged up to 13 per cent during last quarter.
The survey said household sector has been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption followed by industries 31.1 per cent, agriculture 14.3 per cent, other government sector 7.4 per cent, commercial 5.5 per cent and street light 0.7 per cent.
Keeping in view the past trend and the future development, WAPDA has also revised its load forecast to eight per cent per annum as against previous estimates of five per cent on average. Even the revised load forecast has also failed all assessments due to which Authority has left no other option but to start load management this year, which may convert into scheduled load shedding over a period of two year, sources maintained.
The country needs a quantum jump in electricity generation in medium-term scenario to revert the possibilities of load shedding in future due to shrinking gap between demand and supply of electricity at peak hours.
According to an official report, the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the financial year 2006-07.
The report maintained that the difference between firm supply and peak demand is estimated at 5,529 MW by the year 2009-10 when firm electricity supply will stand at 15,055 MW against peak demand of 20,584 MW.
Chairman WAPDA Tariq Hamid at a Press conference early this year warned about the possible energy crisis and stressed the need for ‘quantum jump’ in power generation. The experts say it could only be possible through a mega project of hydropower generation; otherwise the gap between firm supply and peak demand will remain on the rise.
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They said the power generation projects, which are due to commission in coming years are of low capacity and will not be able to exceed the surging demand of the electricity.
They say no power generation project will commission during this fiscal year and the total installed capacity of electricity generation will remain 19,478 MW to meet 15,082 MW firm supply and 14,642 MW peak demand.
Giving details of projects, the sources said Malakand-lll (81MW), Pehur (18MW) and combined cycle power plant at Faisalabad (450MW) are planned to be commissioned during the year 2007. Mangla Dam raising project would also add 150 MW capacity to the national grid by June 2007.
Besides this, Khan Khwar (72MW), Allai Khwar (121MW), Duber Khwar (130MW) and Kayal Khwar (130MW) are expected to be completed in 2008 along with Golan Gol (106MW) and Jinnah (96MW). Moreover, Matiltan (84MW), New Bong Escape (79MW) and Rajdhani (132MW) are expected by 2009 while Taunsa (120MW) is likely to be completed by 2010. Sources say WAPDA has also planned to install a high efficiency combined cycle power plant at Baloki (450MW), which is expected to be completed by 2010. In addition of these, power plant 1 & 2 of 300 MW each at Thar Coal with the assistance of China are also planned for commissioning in 2009, sources said. Moreover, efforts are also under way with China National Nuclear Corporation for the construction of a third nuclear power plant with a gross capacity of 325 MW at Chashma, they added.
When contacted, a WAPDA official said there is no power shortage in the country at present as the Authority still has over 1,000 MW surplus electricity. However, he admitted that the shortage may occur in the year 2007 and onward and said the Authority will utilise all options including running of IPPs plant at full capacity to avert any possible crisis.
About the system augmentation to bring down line losses, the official said the Authority would spend Rs 3.5 billion on augmentation of distribution lines this fiscal while another Rs 5 billion will be consumed on transmission lines. “We have been negotiating Rs 9 billion loan with a consortium of local banks to upgrade and augment the power transmission system,” he disclosed. The official further said that five new transmission lines of 220-KV would be installed by the end of 2004, that would ensure smooth supply to the consumers. He expressed full trust on present transmission and distribution system and said it could easily sustain the load of total installed power generation in the country.
July 2, 2004
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MAJOR ENERGY CRISIS FEARED
Pakistan is most likely to face a major energy crisis in natural gas, power and oil in the next three to four years that could choke the economic growth for many years to come, official estimates and energy experts suggest.
Pakistan’s total energy requirement would increase by about 48 per cent to 80 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) in 2010 from about 54 MTOE currently, but major initiatives of meeting this gap are far from turning into reality, said a former petroleum minister on condition of anonymity for the simple reason that he had also served the present government.
Major shortfall is expected in the natural gas supplies, he said. According to official energy demand forecast, he added, the demand for natural gas, having about 50 per cent share in the country’s energy consumption, would increase by 44 per cent to 39 MTOE from 27 MTOE currently.
Partly contributed by gas shortfalls, the power shortage is expected to be little over 5,250MW by 2010, he said, adding that the oil demand would also increase by over 23 per cent to about 21 million tons in 2010 from the current demand of 16.8 million tons.
This would leave a total deficit of about nine million tons of diesel and furnace oil imports, he said. Since the gas shortfalls were expected to be much higher, the country would need to enhance its dependence on imported oil, thus increasing pressure on foreign exchange situation, he added.
Last year’s oil import bill amounted to about $6.5 billion compared with about $3.5 billion in 2004-05, mainly because of higher international oil prices - a burden expected to be even higher in future as a result of growing Middle East crisis.
Current year’s oil import bill has again been projected by the government at about $6.5 billion on last year’s average prices, which have started to rise in the recent days.
According to the former minister, the government had planned five major initiatives to meet these energy requirements. They included three gas import pipelines, Gwadar port as energy hub and LNG import. However, four of these measures, including the three import pipeline projects, show no signs of progress for various reasons while concentration on energy facilities in Gwadar would chiefly depend on security situation, besides oil and gas import pipelines.
Planning Commission sources said the government had planned to add an overall power generation capacity of about 7,880MW by 2010. Of this, about 4,860MW is to be based on natural gas, accounting for 61 per cent of capacity expansion.
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However, the gas-based power expansion of about 4,860MW would remain in doubt since these estimates were based on gas import options for completion in 2010, 2015 and 2020, said the sources.
The fifth initiative of LNG import was on schedule and would start delivering about 0.3 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFD) by 2009 and another 0.5 BCFD by 2015, said the sources.
Petroleum ministry officials are not ready to speak on record about gas import options and resultant overall energy shortfalls because of recent political developments on Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project and security situation in Afghanistan and non-certification of gas reserves in Turkmenistan.
According to World Bank estimates, a demand gap (supply shortage) of about four per cent of the total demand, is expected in 2010. Even though this gap would be met by LNG imports, it would again increase to 20 per cent of the total demand. The bank said the indigenous gas supply would fall from 32.6 MTOE in 2010 to 20.7 MTOE in 2025 while the ‘gas supply-demand gap’ would rapidly increase as demand is expected to grow continuously, quadrupling in 2025.
As per the World Bank estimates, the gas imports will represent almost 67 per cent of natural gas supply in 2025. One can, therefore, gauge the quantum of shortage in case import pipelines are not materialised.
Pakistan’s gas reserves are 32.8 TCF at present, with reserve-production ratio in the order of 27 years, considering that domestic production does not grow substantially. Power sector demand represents 41 per cent of total gas consumption, general industries 24 per cent, fertiliser 7.8 per cent and domestic-commercial 22.8 per cent, cement 1.5 per cent and CNG 2.8 per cent.
Demand growth has been up to 8.5 per cent in recent years and is expected to be seven per cent with power industries and domestic consumption accounting for 82 per cent. Gas demand already displays seasonal pattern with national demand growing in winter beyond transmission capacity. Therefore, supplies to large users mainly industries and power plants are curtailed during winter months to ensure supplies to domestic, commercial and small industries. Annual production at present is about 1.16 TCF.
Khaleeq Kiani, Dawn, July 28, 2006
PAKISTAN’S QUEST FOR ENERGY SECURITY
Energy has become an important prerequisite for the economic development of a country. On one hand it is used for the industrial and agricultural purposes and on the other hand it is required for domestic use of the citizens. Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source. Globally
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consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most vigorous growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Consumption of natural gas worldwide increases in the forecast by an average of 2.3 percent annually from 2002 to 2025, compared with projected annual growth rates of 1.9 percent for oil consumption and 2.0 percent for coal consumption. The electric power sector accounts for almost one-half of the total incremental growth in worldwide natural gas demand over the forecast period.
South Asia is important to world energy markets because it contains 1.3 billion people and is experiencing rapid energy demand growth. After India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are the next largest South Asian countries in these categories. Economic and population growth in South Asia have resulted in rapid increases in energy consumption in recent years. The major energy issues facing South Asian nations today are keeping up with rapidly rising energy demand. Agency for energy consumption has projected that by the year 2010 South Asian countries shall be consuming more than double the current levels of primary commercial energy.
Pakistan’s largest energy source is natural gas, with demand and imports growing rapidly.
Currently, natural gas supplies 49 percent of Pakistan’s energy needs. According to the Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), as of January 1, 2005, Pakistan had 26.83 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves. Pakistan is looking to increase its gas production to support increasing consumption through Pipelines from Iran and Turkmenistan. Currently, Pakistan ranks third in the world for use of natural gas as a motor fuel, behind Brazil and Argentina. In addition, Pakistan hopes to make gas the fuel of choice for future electric power generation projects. Pakistan ambitiously seeks to increase oil production through new alliances with foreign companies. Pakistan’s net oil imports are projected to rise substantially in coming years as demand growth outpaces increases in production.
Pakistan will see power shortages by 2007 unless actions are taken to increase generation and reduce transmission losses. Pakistan has 18 gigawatts (GW) of electric generating capacity. Thermal plants using oil, natural gas, and coal account for about 70 percent of this capacity, with hydroelectricity (hydro) making up 28 percent and nuclear 2.5 percent. Pakistan's total power generating capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, largely due to foreign investment, ultimately leading to a partial alleviation of the power shortages. Pakistan often faces load shedding in peak seasons. Transmission losses are about 30 percent, due to poor quality infrastructure and a significant amount of power theft. Periodic droughts affect the availability of hydropower. The Government is understandably engaged in a vigorous effort to expand the nation’s power generation capacity through building of dams and inviting foreign investors for establishing thermal units in the country. The things are,
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however, seemingly getting out of its hand due to the yawning gap between supply and demand of electricity.
Coal currently plays a minor role in Pakistan’s energy mix. However, Pakistan contains an estimated 3,362 million tons, sixth largest in the world. President Musharraf has stated that coal should make up more than the current 1 percent of electric power generation in Pakistan. The Pakistani Ministry of Industries and Production has granted a Chinese company to build two coal-fired power-generation plants to supply 600 MW of electricity. Aside from power plants generated by coal, Pakistan is also working to expand the use of wind turbines. For instance, the Pakistan Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) recently approved New Park Energy Phase I, a 400-MW wind project near Port Qasim.
Energy cooperation is the key to regional development. Pakistan’s government is working on plans to build an Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline that spans from Iran’s massive reserves to Indian markets across Pakistani territory. Russia’s biggest gas producer, Gazprom, has recently shown interest in the $7.4 billion pipeline project and has indicated its desire to invest in it. While Iran and Pakistan have made agreements to move forward, India still remains reluctant due to its recent nuclear deal with USA. Iran has offered to cover 60 percent of the construction costs of the pipeline and Pakistani officials have stressed their ability to safeguard the pipeline. Iran will lay the pipeline from Pars to Pakistani border. Islamabad will build the pipeline from the Iranian border to its Central Pakistani city of Bhong in District Rahaim Yar Khan. Both countries have discussed the gas pricing formula, project structure, its feasibility, gas off-take volumes and the gas sales and purchase agreement. In spite of US pressure for not building IPI pipeline, Pakistan remains determined for the pipeline. In fact, in the face of the US pressure against IPI, now two pipelines from Iran are under "active consideration" — one for Pakistan and the other for India, through Pakistan. If India participates in IPI project, Pakistan will be entitled to transit fee. But, if Pakistan builds the pipeline from the Iranian to the Indian border, then it will also be entitled to transportation charges.
This is the great vision of President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz according to which Pakistan is going to become an energy corridor for China. Islamabad’s negotiation for a second transnational gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan (TAP) also entered a final stage because experts are of the view that Pakistan's fast growing energy demand requires laying two gas pipelines. Washington supports the TAP project and has assured the pipeline’s security through Afghanistan. It also holds good prospects for other South Asian users, depending on the size of supplies that Turkmenistan can arrange. The plans to build a third transnational gas pipeline from Qatar to Pakistan and India—- Gulf-South Asia Pipeline (GUSA)-—seem to have slowed down because of
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the gas availability issues. "The plan to import gas from Qatar is not, however, shelved," maintained by Jahangir Khan, spokesman for Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources.
With the development of Gawadar Port, Pakistan can provide the trade and energy corridor for the whole region especially to China. In this perspective president has rightly remarked so, “When Karakoram Highway was built, the world called it the eighth wonder, and we can create the ninth and tenth wonders by establishing energy pipelines and railway linkages between the two fast growing economies.” China and Pakistan agreed to widen KKH for larger vehicles with heavier freight. The rebuilding of KKH will enable China to ship its energy supplies from the Middle East from Gwader Port in Balochistan through the land route of KKH to western China, which is its development hub. This alternative energy supply route will reduce Beijing’s dependence on the Malacca Straits. Pakistan also wants to set up a “crude transit route” through Gwader Port for Beijing’s energy shipments from Iran and Africa. For this reason, Pakistan is building oil refineries, natural gas terminals, oil and gas equipment, and transit facilities in Balochistan. China has agreed to help Pakistan with its plans for the development of its oil and gas industry. With this planned elaborate energy infrastructure, KKH has assumed an added significance as an alternative land link between China and its energy sources, of which Iran is at the top. The recent Pak-China energy forum in Islamabad was a major step in formulating future strategy to ensure energy security of both countries.
Muhammad Munir, Pakistan Observer, 20 May 2006
WASTE TO ENERGY IS NEEDED IN PAKISTAN
Growing urbanisation and changes in the pattern of life, give rise to generation of increasing quantities of wastes and it’s now becoming another threat to our already degraded environment. However, in recent years, waste-to-energy technologies have been developed to produce clean energy through the combustion of municipal solid waste in specially designed power plants equipped with the most modern pollution control equipment to clean emissions. Yet, solid waste management practices differ for developed and developing nations. In developing countries like Pakistan, institutions charged with the responsibility to make decisions on solid waste management, operate in the enormous information, policy and strategy vacuum and lack therefore the ability to address this looming environmental disaster.
The perfect ‘case study’ of information gap in selection of appropriate methodology to dispose municipal waste exhibited by the apex civic authority of Pakistan is when the capital development authority has finally decided to solve the ever-increasing volume of municipal waste by landfill in groundwater
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recharge area. While in developed countries, landfills are now bracketed as ‘obsolete’ and ‘mines of the future’ after observing several problems like pollution and contamination of groundwater by leachate and residual soil contamination after landfill closure and simple nuisance problems. This is the very reason why in the United States sanitary landfill techniques have steadily decreased from 8,000 in 1988 to 1,767 in 2002. Extensively focusing on turning waste to energy, municipal authorities in USA have realised the contribution of waste to an increasing electricity shortage.
Today in America, 2500 MW are solely generated by the waste-to-energy plants. Many other countries in the world, Sweden, Japan included, have applied this technology since the last 20 years. In the sub continent, India installed three projects to produce electricity from waste with a total capacity of 17.6 MW. Although these ‘made in India’ power plants are generating electricity by direct incineration, causing pollution and must be upgraded by sophisticated monitoring systems to check pollution. These examples are enough to establish that CDA’s ignorance of modern technologies is surely not simply a lack of ‘access to information’, but questions the professional capabilities of the planners within its corridors.
The site selected for the landfill project is at Kuri, an ancient city of Potwar and its aerial distance is hardly five kilometres from sector G-5, known as the nucleus of Islamabad. Though, in July 2003, the same site was considered for a landfill project but UNDP out rightly rejected and warned that environmental cost would be considerable, besides air pollution, contamination of groundwater if Kuri was selected as a landfill project. JICA in 1988 also compiled a detail investigation report, which established that the area is the recharge zone of the aquifer catering for more than 50 per cent of the twin cities’ drinking demand. Based on these serious environmental constraints, as its location is up a slope and within the flood plain of Gumrah River, the recharge-basin of the twin cities aquifer, the site was rejected. Recent floods substantiated the finding of all the reports, as the site is definitely within the flood plains of the Gumrah River and would need to be protected on a priority basis, especially as water shortages is now a permanent problem of the twin cities.
Whoever selected and approved the site for the ‘disaster of the future’, showed ignorance of the above reports and absolute ignorance of the adverse environmental impacts this project would create. Is this ignorance simply unawareness of the planners or is it complete apathy towards anything old, which rejects that Kuri is recorded as an ancient city of the Potowar Region. As CDA is constantly focusing on developing tourist attractions, why not preserve this historical area? Aware of the unprofessional management at CDA’s varied directorates one anticipates leachates from the landfills, polluting the amazingly still clean groundwater table, while the wind will carry
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waves of leaking gases towards the G-5 Sector, farther adding to the prevalent health hazards of the capital.
‘Access to clean water’ has been given the ‘top priority’ flag by the president. Selecting a site along the Gumrah River, known to recharge the groundwater along its winding course through Chak Shehzad and Kanna shows the warped priorities of the planning commission that approves projects, the ministry of interior responsible for CDA affairs and the CDA itself. Had CDA only followed the minutest details provided in the Federal Capital Commission Reports of 1960 by the earlier planners of the capital city, Islamabad today would have been a model for the rest of Pakistan.
The CDA ignored the most recent seismic zoning report of the region too. According to EPA US regulations, duly adopted by Pakistan’s EPA, there should be no significant seismic risk within identified landfill sites. Kuri is within a highly sensitive earthquake zone, according to new seismic zoning maps prepared after the earthquake 2005. An earthquake having a magnitude of 4.2 was recorded on July 7, 1989 and its epicentre was at a distance of 10 kilometres from Kuri.
Had the spread of this infectious disease the ‘vacuum of information’ been contained in time, CDA would surely have been able to diagnose that the estimated cost of two billion rupees for the landfill site, would have sufficed for setting up an ‘energy-to-waste’ plant in the city. With load-shedding a permanent crisis in Pakistan, adding some extra megawatts through waste-to-energy could have solved many ills in the rapidly growing energy needs.
A vacuum of information has not allowed the CDA to communicate either with the alternate energy development board, established by the federal government in 2003. This board was given the mandate to solve the energy crisis that is facing this country through renewable technologies. Although advertisements in the printed media asked for feasibility studies of ‘waste-to-energy’ units for ten cities of the country, the twin cities were ignored. Had mutual interactions been part of the government systems, the funds available to the CDA for the ill-fated sanitary landfill, and the technical know-how of alternate energy development board (AEDB), Islamabad could have prided itself of being the first ever waste-to-energy unit in the country today.
The decision to construct a landfill project at extremely sensitive areas need not only to be reviewed but also need to empower the AEDB to generate electricity from waste to cope with the energy demand in the lines of international environmental commitments avoiding violation of the Kyoto Protocol and Stockholm Convention. Now decision-makers have to choose whether to allow the CDA to go ahead with the landfill project, to dump waste for adding more pollution and contamination of groundwater or to allow production of environment friendly energy.
Arshad H Abbasi, November 9, 2006
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TYPES OF ENERGY
Energy can be differentiated as
1. Kinetic energy
2. Potential energy
3. Mechanical for example moving piston in a cylinder
4. Electrical energy. Electricity, lightning
5. Thermal Energy, Heat, hot water, steam
6. Light , microwaves, x-rays , solar, ultra violet rays
1. Gravitational energy. Hydro power, ball above ground
2. Spring . stretched rubber band
3. Magnetic planetary poles
4. Nuclear , fission, fusion, heavy water uranium
5. Chemical , gasoline, batteries, oil natural gas, gun powder, coal, wood
Thermal Energy is the oldest type of energy. With all known history available, Wood was always used for heating and cooking. In 2nd world war fossil fuels entered in the form of coal to get the energy, until liquid fuels were discovered and because of their convenience of transportation they took over as major contributors of the energy source.
Once the steam engines were invented then the coal or liquid fuel was burnt in the boilers and the heat produces steam which is used to drive electrical generators, or any other mechanical device.
Rudolph diesels invention of diesel engine revolutionaries the energy concept and today we see sine the majority of machines moving on diesel engines.
Diesel engines can be 2 stroke or 4 stroke type. They can be in line or arranged in V or even W shape. They can be single acting or double acting.
Another method of converting thermal energy to mechanical energy is by the gas turbines. Turbines are also used to run by steam or hot gases which are produced by igniting fuel.
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For converting thermal energy to electrical energy alternators are used to drive on constant RPM.
The choice of gensets strictly depends on the requirement of the client, before ordering a power plant following points to be considered
1. Expected demand of the power.
2. Type of fuel required
3. Space available for the power plant
4. Avilability of genset
5. Avilability of local service back up and stock of parts
6. Price is paramount importance and hidden expenses should be looked carefully
The major manufacturers and suppliers of Gensets based on internal combustion engines are given below
4. Jen Bacher
7. Detroit Diesel
8. Rolls Royce
Internal combustion engine can obtain 30-50% thermal efficiency. It means that around 50% energy is wasted in the form of exhaust gases , cooling systems and radiation. Therefore for larger plants heat recovery systems are utilized.
In Pakistan due to attractive gas prices this is a general trend that gas operated power plants are preferred if gas connections are available.
The gas gensets are available from less than 1 MW sizes to 6 MW configuration. Normally they are V type and 12,16 18 and 20 cylinder configuration.
In addition some models are available on duel fuel technology which can be operated simultaneously on gas and furnace oil.
The price of a 3 MW gas genset can be expected around 1 Million $. However low RPM engines will be more costly Unit cost of fuel on gas genset can be evaluated as follows
Fuel Cost Rs 2.7 (depends upon the genset )
Maintenance Rs 0.20
Lubricating Oil Rs.0.10
Chemical R Rs. 0.02
General stores Rs. 0.01
Overhead +Insurance Rs.0.07
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Total Rs. 3.40
The engines which are running the fuel cost is only variable and can be calculated by multiplying fuel cost by a factor of 225. (225 grams / KWHR is an average net fuel consumption expected.)
Water flowing in the rivers has kinetic energy. Once they are used to drive the turbine and produce electricity the power generated as Hydel Energy.
Power produced by the turbines depends on quantity of water flowing/minute and the head of water available.
Mostly river flows by melting glaciers on high mountains. Once the water start flowing in the valleys it changes its head very rapidly. This energy can be converted into electrical energy.
Two method are normally used:-
2. Run of River projects.
In case of Dams the water flow is restricted by making a huge storage device and the head of water is increased, the water then is allowed to flow by means of gates and pass through the turbines, the head of reservoir level is maintained to provide uniform power, and the water stored in peak season additionally is used for irrigation purposes in dry seasons.
In run of river projects the water is diverted through the tunnels and once it gains the head allowed to fall and pass through the turbines and back to river. the water in these projects is continuously flowing and not being stored.
Geographical situation is paramount importance in choosing a suitable site for the hydro project and it evolves a very serious time and money consuming study.
Once a site is located further detailed feasibility study is required before proceeding any serious effort to start the work.
The feasibility study should include following field work.
1. Detailed Mapping of the area
2. Topographic study of the area
3. Seismic refraction study
4. River flow data
5. Weather data containing, Temperatures, pressures, rain humidity
6. Water sampling and testing
7. Environmental study
8. Social impact
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9. Wild life and fish study
10. Identification of stake holders of the area
11. Coring and getting samples of the soil at 50-200 meters depth
12. Laboratory testing of the cores samples
13. Tectonic study to evaluate earth quake dangers
Pakistan is facing acute shortage of energy. with 7% increase of its economy this short fall soon to slow down its economic growth and will shatter its dream to become one day a developed country.
Most of its energy demand is being met with either Hydro power or thermal units. Pakistan is spending a very large amount of foreign exchange to purchase the furnace. The gas reserves already start depleting and oil markets are sky rocketing. To overcome this shortage Government take a initiative to investigate Alternate energy resources in Pakistan developed Alternate Energy Board AEDB. The Board is headed by Retd Air Marshal Shahid Hamid. identified 50,000 MW energy potential from wind resource
Pakistan is blessed with a large resource of wind corridor. Although Pakistan meteorological Department was gathering wind data for quite long time But recently United States provided wind energy map for Pakistan which confirms a strong wind corridor in Sind coastal area.
AEDB issued about 80 LOI to the investors List of LOI holders )to develop 50 MW wind farms. Out of which 15 are already issued the land and feasibility reports and financial closings are in progress.
The following is a brief road map for developing a wind form
1. submission of proposal by sponsor
2. Review of proposal by AEDB
3. Posting of Bank Guarantee
4. issuance of letter of intent ( LOI )
5. Feasibility study
6. Generation License
7. Tariff Determination
8. Submission of Performance Guarantee
9. Tariff determination by NEPRA
10. Submission of performance guarantee
11. Issuance of Letter of support
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The first requirement of conducting feasibility study is to install a wind mast. The three major manufacturers of wind data are listed below. This document explains the method for installing weather station.
Geological, seismic, tectonic and environmental studies will be required along with Digital mapping and topography of the site for preparing a bankable feasibility study. A confirm EPC cost will also be needed for calculation of tariffs.
Some large manufacturers of wind turbines are given below
1. Denmark (27.9%)
2. GE Wind, US (17.7%)
3. Enercon,Germany (13.2%)
4. Gamesa, Spain (12.9%)
5. Suzlon, India (6.1%)
6. Siemens, Denmark (5.5%)
7. Repower, Germany (3.1%)
8. Nordex, Germany (2.6%)
9. Ecotecnia, Spain (2.1%)
1 Mitsubishi, Japan (2.0%)
WIND ENERGY BASICS
Power developed by a wind turbine can be mathematically shown in following formulae
1/2xdensity of air x effective area of rotor blade x cube of speed of wind
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The lay out and designing of the wind form can be done by wind energy planning and project software available in market in a reasonable price . One such software is Wind Pro which is a very convenient tool for project management.
Environmental Protection agency require a detailed environmental impact study of the project. The following issues should be discussed detail
1. Birds collision or alteration of their migration routes
2. Noise impact
RISING OIL PRICES
All predictions now failing and the oil prices are rising and now about to reach 100 $ level. who knows that in market trading if even the customers are buying the oil on +100 $. the reason being given for this enormous rise is the US oil reserves are depleting and therefore customers are ready to purchase the oil at any price available.
The future prospects also not very encouraging. All trading is being made on +90 $. OPEC promised to raise its out put but with out any
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significant effect. for the time being the prices were dipped but risen again on much higher values.
The winter is just arriving and nobody knows that these prices will settle at what level.
Rising tension between US and Iran is one reason. Some sources are predicting the attack on Iran is imminent. If the condition continues like this who is going to be benefited.
Emerging economies and developing will suffer most. Their economy is dependent on energy resources. how can survive and how can they meet their production commitments.
In recent months oil surged from 70$ to 92$ and still rising. Those industries which consumes more energy will suffer with maximum. It will lead to rise of inflation shutting down in efficient industries and rising un employment in third world countries.
When come to individual the poor will suffer most .High income group will survive and it will not effect on their livings. But the strains coming on poor in third world countries will transform to social unrest and hence will cause instability in the region.
Pakistan economy is already under intense pressure. On one hand it has the competitors like China and India giving cut throat fight. Another end it has continuous problem on its western borders draining its resources and causing political chaos. The election is just three months away and the results expected are the change of government to Pakistan Peoples Party.
Pakistan exports and its all economic activities are dependent of uninterrupted energy supplies for its energy requirement maximum share still of furnace which is imported from Middle East countries. Rising prices will bring a wave of inflation.
Already many textile mills closed down due to higher production costs which make it un economical. further increase in oil prices will definitely bring more strain on existing working units. In election environments it will be definitely a difficult decision for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to authorize the fuel prices in Pakistan.
But he has no other option. How far the Government continues to absorb the fuel bills eventually it has to increase the prices. And again who will suffer simply the poor
Today only there are news that Pakistan is going ahead 2000 MW power plant based on furnace oil. Now we have to look for the future and sustainable economic activity.
Development of Renewable energy resources are not moving ahead beyond symposiums and conferences or in other crude words lip services. Pakistan's future as economic leader in the region is at stake if sustainable cheap energy resources are not developed on priority.
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So the solution is not so simple. Renewable yes. The hurdles should be identified and removed on priority.
One area which we want to emphasize is the conservation of energy. We have to persuade all concerned that all possible measures to be taken to save energy so it can be used for future.
Energy efficient plants and machines are the recipe for our survival.
PAKISTAN COAL RESERVES SHOULD BE EXPLORED
The energy shortage is increasing day by day and the resources of Pakistan are limited and this year we are witnessing increasing of imported fuel bill. This is time that Pakistan should explore all its available resources.
We see a limited progress in alternate energy sector. But so far little efforts are being made to explore and use the coal reserves in Sind.
This is claimed that coal quality is inferior and having low BTU. This is a challenging task. Today technology and boilers are available that can burn any kind of coal. Therefore all possible measures should be adopted to utilize existing resources.
The smaller size power plants near the coal mines which can get direct feed and connect to National Grid will be an ideal configuration.
PAKISTAN IRAN AGREE ON GAS PIPE LINE PROJECT
This week very good news coming in energy sector that Iran and Pakistan finally agreed to go ahead with the project.
The gas project which was initiated by Iran India and Pakistan was having many constraints and was continuously under pressure from US. India was asking more time to make the decision and therefore the project was delayed.
Finally Iran and Pakistan decided to continue with the project and when ever India decides it can be accommodated in the project extension.
The major issue which is now resolved is the gas price which is now related to petroleum prices as per the international practice. For all practical purposes the gas purchased will be based on BTU values as agreed by both partners.
For Pakistan it means that the gas will be on higher price than the domestic supply which is subsidized for common house hold users.
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The gas is prime energy source for domestic usage as well as fertilizers and power generation companies.
This is expected that the average price when fixed for local consumers will take care for common users as well as industrial users
Iran wants quick decision for Gas Pipe
Iran asking India to make the decision of joining Gas Pipe Line project soonest, otherwise the project will be started with Pakistan.
Reluctance of India to make a firm decision is understandable due to Geo-Political Scenario. However this project is vitally important and profitable for Indian sustainable economic growth. Therefore a positive outcome is expected soon.
ECNEC APPROVES ENERGY PROJECTS
The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council ECNEC approved 23 projects worth 116.5 Billion Rs. The meeting was the last on the chairman ship of Prime Minister Mr. Shaukat Aziz whose term is expiring in three weeks.
Energy sector was given prime consideration and the development of nuclear power projects approved. Pakistan facing acute shortage of energy and this is a wise decision to focus on nuclear energy which is renewable, cheap and environment free.
with furnace reaching 100$ Large Hydel projects having social concerns ,wind turbines not available in market, and gas reserves depleting nuclear becomes most attractive option.
ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN - I
We have written many blogs on this subject. But we never thought that the situation will reach to such disastrous condition so soon.
Last week we saw a series of disasters in energy sector. Pakistan electrical energy production sustain shortfall of 3000 MW. Actual figure is slightly controversial as we have seen various statements emerging from various sectors.
Production units were shut. There was severe load shedding through- out the country. APTMA was forced to accept volunteer load shedding of 5 hours each day on all units. And the residential areas were with out power
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maximum time of the day.
The situation was worsened because Sui Gas Company already stopped the supply of industrial units and was going through a system of load shedding it self. Therefore captive units were shut off due to non avilability of the gas. The IPP who were operating on furnace could not get the regular supply of furnace and they did not bother to keep enough stock for contingency therefore stop shutting.
And then naturally the blame game started, starting from the water shortage in Dams to furnace oil transportation problem, violence in Sind and maintenance activity in some independent power producers.
Now it is officially declared that in last 10 years not a singles MW was added. We have seen hundreds of seminars, conferences and events on energy issues in Pakistan. The money wasted there if utilized then at least we can add few hundred MW of Power.
The fact is that Pakistan is sustaining an acute shortage of Power. Its demand is increasing and production is declining due to aging of the plants.
And no solution is in sight. The projects which are in pipe line will not come in line before 2009. And even the magnitude is such that it will not be able to fulfill the demand of today.
WAPDA is in favor of large dams and thinks that the delay of construction of large dams was the basic reason for the shortage of power. The issue is very controversial subject and it is not expected to resolve soon. Moreover the construction of the dam will take at least 10 years and if the situation persist our economy will then come to a stage where it will need any power any more.
The situation demand an urgent decision. A decision which is vital for the safety, stability and survival of Pakistan.
Energy is a key factor for the stability and prosperity of Pakistan. If our production units keep on shutting then un employment will rise and hence street violence will rise.
This is the time to restructure our energy policy. In our opinion instead of many agencies one central ministry should look after the energy issues in Pakistan.
This is utmost important that an environment should be created where the investments are made in energy sector. Recently Government is advocating a policy of promoting the investment in Private Sector. Although the response is favorable but the out come is very slow.
Now Government has to make a huge investment in energy sector. And the investment has to be in direct purchase of power plants, manufacturing main and auxiliary units,
The objective should be utilization of diversified energy resources. It is imperative that renewable energy resources should be explored but still conventional thermal and coal fired power plants should be established.
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The strategy should be to explore indigenous local resources. For example furnace oil plants are best suited in Karachi where the port and refinery facilities are available. Gas plants to be installed in Baluchistan, Sind and N.W.F.P near to existing gas fields. N.W.F.P should explore medium, small and micro size hydro projects. Sind must use its Coal reserves. Wind turbines to be installed in coastal belt, and Punjab must explore bio-gas and city waste plants.
From US and Europe we should borrow and purchase the technology to manufacture various power plants in Pakistan. For example if we start building 1-3 KW micro hydro, wind or solar power plants in Pakistan sufficient to provide energy to one home we can sell to individual families direct at low installments. The cost will be recovered in utility bills compensation.
For the furnace IPP and captive power plants should be allowed to import furnace oil duty free. Then existing laid up power plants will again become operational.
All efforts to be made that Iran Pakistan gas pipeline project is implemented soonest. Moreover one additional pipe line for crude oil to be installed to reduce our dependence on sea route.
Pakistan is in need of energy very badly and urgently. Pakistan should look for nuclear energy possibilities. Pakistan is one of seven countries in the world who has an indigenous capability to operate the nuclear power plant for last forty years.
Pakistan should look all alternatives to increase its electrical energy production by 10,000 MW in two years. This is a very challenging and difficult task. But if it fails its target then all other indicators will go negative leaving behind a disastrous situation.
A dedicated campaign of energy conservation is needed to spread the awareness of energy conservation programs. This is also believed that in general major energy consumers have little or no awareness of energy saving procedures. The machinery when purchased a very little emphasis is given on electrical or mechanical efficiency of the plant. The result is that our production units are consuming much more energy than their competitors resulting their product cost high and it is not competitive in international market.
Energy conservation is indeed energy production. So if an investment is made in this sector then it will pay back in 3-5 years.
This is the responsibility of Government to start various energy conservation programs suited for various industries.
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ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN - II
A very common question asked in Pakistan is about the most burning issue in Pakistan? The answer you will get may be a list of hundreds of issues which start from Kashmir and will end on terrorism or militancy etc etc.
Recently Mr. Mansha in an interview in CNN replied same question by giving a simple answer that water and energy are two most valid problems in Pakistan.
Energy is a most problematic issue in the world. Whereas oil prices are steadily rising and no stability is seen in near future. Demands of energy from the emerging markets like China and India are growing day by day. Pakistan with official figurers of growth rate of 8% will have a definite rise in demand of energy for minimum 3%
In USA the Gulf of Mexico is famous for oil producing and refining facilities. The prosperity of Houston is only due to oil industry being flourished. However the weather is not so kind on this area and hurricanes and tornadoes commonly hit the southern part of USA and Caribbean.
Such is the volatility of fuel market now that just news of one hurricane developing in Caribbean shoots the oil prices in the world. A few years before oil was being traded on 20$ and no body ever thought that the weather conditions in the gulf can effect the oil market.
Politically the Iran situation is deteriorating day by day where as Iraq condition is not stabilizing. Oil today is being traded around 65 $/, and the most vital question now is what will happen if the prices rises to 75 $ or even one hundred $/barrel.
Pakistan with small manufacturing market, surrounded by major emerging economies like China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Bangladesh will be worst effected with the rise of energy prices.
As a rule of thumb modern day manufacturing industries utilize at least 33% production cost in terms of energy prices. An increase of energy cost will effect their production cost and will force the manufacturers that either to reduce the labor cost or to remain competitive in market by improving the quality standards.
Major giants China and India will benefit with this condition and smaller economies will suffer badly.
Are our policy makers in Islamabad thinking for the gravity of problem which is now just standing on our door step?
On famous oil embargo days a lot of research in Europe was carried out to find the alternate source of energy. The findings are available even in college books. However with the drop of oil prices such alternatives were uneconomical and therefore shelved.
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This is the time that Pakistan now asses very carefully that in case of oil prices rising to 75 $ what actions it should take to conserve energy and to find the alternate source of energy.
A volunteer option for all energy users is to conserve energy. To make the plants more efficient and to see that each drop of petrol is saved .If we make serious study on this subject then we may achieve up to 20% saving in energy ,hence saving in our production cost and making our products more attractive in international market.
Of course the energy conservation programs cost money. However the investment will be rewarding and will be beneficial in long terms.
Pakistan’s thermal units are day by day become aging, reducing their output power. With the rise of demand very soon we will see an acute shortage of energy and hence load shedding and shutting of the industrial units. This will seriously affect our competitiveness in the international market.
A liberal and progressive policy with less bureaucratic approach towards energy producing units will help and bring attractive investment in Power sector.
This is the responsibility of government to look for the alternate options for finding the energy resources. This investment can only be made by the federal government.
This is the time of survival. Only the countries which are prepared for the worst will have a prosperous future.
PAKISTAN'S ENERGY CRISIS TO WORSEN IN NEXT TWO YEARS
The Pakistani government is anticipating the energy crisis to worsen in the coming two years due to a 50% increase in the demand and a rather slow improvement in the supply, the leading Pakistani newspaper DAWN reported Monday.
The power shortage, estimated to be 1000 to 2000 MW during the current year, is likely to hit 3000 MW next year and to increase to about 5300 MW by 2010, said the report.
The overall energy requirement of Pakistan is expected to be about 80 million tons of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2010, up by about 50% from the 54 MTOE of the current year, it said.
A government official told DAWN that the energy shortage was severe and widespread in almost all areas, and natural gas, power, and oil shortages were all posing risks to the economic growth in medium to long term period.
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Another official, quoted by the report, said that the development of water resources would resolve the problem in the long run but in the short term, there was a limit to constructing costly thermal power projects given their high economic costs.
A major shortfall is expected in natural gas supplies, as an official energy demand forecast indicates that the demand for natural gas, which makes up about 50% of Pakistan's energy consumption, would increase by 44% to 39 MTOE from 27 MTOE currently, DAWN reported.
The government had planned five major initiatives, including three gas import pipelines, the Gwadar port as energy hub and the LNG import to meet these energy requirements.
But four of these measures, namely the three import pipeline projects, are uncertain at present, while concentration on energy facilities in Gwadar would chiefly depend on security situation, besides oil and gas import pipelines, said the report.
Xinhua English Newswire, January 9, 2007
WIND POWER: A SOLUTION TO ENERGY CRISIS
TO encourage private investment in power sector, the government formulated power generation policy (2002). However, progress in commissioning of new power plants has been slow. In the four years since the revised policy was implemented, only one 225 MW gas-fired power plant has achieved financial close.
The extended time lag is not entirely unusual as power projects based on natural gas and furnace-oil involve prolonged negotiations to secure contracts guaranteeing uninterrupted supply of fuel over the life of the project. Up till now, these contracts were entered into with state-owned energy companies such as PSO and OGDC. As these corporations are to be privatised, the government-guaranteed fuel-supply contracts might not be available for new projects.
This will make project financing more difficult since a private enterprise is more likely to default on its fuel-supply obligation over the 25-year life of a power project than a state-owned corporation. This could potentially result in further delays in implementing thermal power projects.
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As Pakistan’s energy needs are immediate , thermal and large hydro-electric plants may not be the solution because such projects may take between 4-12 years to become operational. In order to meet the energy requirements, the best option is exploiting wind energy because wind power projects can start generating electricity within two years.
This is why wind energy is the fastest-growing source of power in the world and its globally-installed capacity has risen from 20,000MW in 2001 to 70,000MW in 2006. USA alone is installing 4,500MW per annum and China plans to install 20,000MW by the year 2020.
India offers a good example of a country that has embraced wind energy and has added substantial electricity generation capacity within a short period of time! It’s cumulative wind power generation capacity is 6,018MW, of which 4,500MW was installed in last five years! If Pakistan can realise half the growth that India has achieved, it can add 2,250MW to its electricity supply in the next five years, much more than possible by pursuing thermal power projects. In fact, wind energy can go a long way in meeting our acute energy shortage. It has also the following additional benefits.
First, thermal electricity production ignores certain “negative externalities”. Externalities are implied costs which are not reflected in the price of a service. For example, a power plant running on natural gas will divert its limited supply from domestic consumption as well as vital industrial use. The total supply of natural gas is fixed and so its usage for power generation could result in a shortfall in other sectors of the economy. An example being the recent shut-down of 11 cement and two fertilizer plants due to gas-supply shortage. The economic loss resulting from deficiency of natural gas due to excessive reliance on gas-fired power generation is a negative externality.
Similarly, in event of war or terrorism, supply routes of oil-tankers/ gas-pipelines will require extensive military protection. This extra cost of security is also a negative externality of thermal power plants. The exclusion of negative externalities understates the true cost of thermal power generation and makes it appear cheaper than it is. Compared to thermal power generation, wind power provides a secure and independent source of externality-free energy.
Second, Pakistan’s current account deficit for FY2006 was recorded at $5.7 billion. The deficit is likely to worsen next year when it is expected to exceed $8 billion. The large increase in the current account deficit is mainly due to a 66.6 per cent surge in oil-imports, a large portion of it is due to increased demand from oil-fired power plants.
Any strategy to cut current account deficit has to deal with cutting oil imports and this can be achieved by reducing reliance on power-generation from furnace oil. Here again, wind energy offers an effective alternative to oil-fired power plants which will help reduce the current account deficit.
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Third,, thermal power tariff is vulnerable to spikes in oil prices similar to the one in early 2006 when the crude-oil prices jumped to $78. As the tariff regime compensates the IPPs for the cost of fuel, any sustained increase in oil prices will feed into the tariff calculation and result in higher cost of electricity. Exploiting wind energy makes economic sense since wind is free and it will make cost of electricity generation less vulnerable to temporary or permanent increases in oil prices.
Lastly, wind power plants will be able to claim carbon-credits (certified emission reductions or CERs) for producing clean energy. CERs are already trading on European commodities exchanges and a global trading mechanism is being developed. Recently, an investment bank (Morgan Stanley) invested more than $3 billion in CERs.
Therefore, CER prices are expected to rise as they continue to attract interest. Under the renewable energy policy, the CERs will be shared between the IPP and the government. This will have the effect of reducing the net-cost of wind power since revenues generated from sale of government-owned CERs will off-set a portion of the tariff paid to the IPP.
Exploiting wind power offers the best route for attaining sufficiency in electricity production and reducing reliance on gas and imported furnace oil. Though wind power requires greater investment per mega-watt produced, however, unlike thermal power generation wind power avoids negative externalities such as additional cost of protecting fuel supply routes.
Wind energy will help reduce the country’s oil-import bill and the cost of power generation less vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices. In addition to all these benefits, windfall from sale of carbon credits will make wind power an economically attractive proposition for meeting our electricity demand at an accelerated pace.
Pakistan has a huge potential to develop wind power. The “wind corridor” in the coastal area of Sindh alone has the capacity to generate 50,000MW and AEDB has put in place a `renewable energy policy that is one of the most comprehensive and investor-friendly in the world. However, progress towards first wind power plant has been handicapped by a severe shortage in supply of wind turbines. The experience of other countries is that once the first project is executed, subsequent additions to capacity take place at an accelerated pace. This should be the case with Pakistan as well.
It is important that the government continues to provide incentives to private investors in the form of an attractive tariff. This support is essential for the development phase of wind power sector and to realise its potential. Exploiting wind resources is not only in our economic interest, but serves our security interest as well!
Malik Ahmad Jalal, Dawn, January 29, 2007
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ENERGY CRISIS MAY GO FROM BAD TO WORSE
The country may witness an aggravated energy crisis in the years to come as the proposed thermal power house at Chichuki Maliyan with a capacity to generate 500 megawatt electricity is in the doldrums, as the project has been withdrawn from Wapda in a strange development, The News has learnt.
Right now power consumers are facing a massive power shortfall of about 2,000 megawatt and this crisis will persist in the years to come as the Chichuki Maliyan power project will get delayed.
Earlier the government had decided that the Chichuki Maliyan power project would be initiated in the public sector and Wapda had been assigned the task.
Wapda conducted the international competitive bidding (ICB) and received the lowest bid from the Japan-based Marubeni Company. Under the agreement, the Marubeni Company was also to invest in the project and to this effect it had arranged a loan from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC).
Wapda was to complete the thermal plant at Chichuki Maliyan with 340 megawatt production in August 2008 and another 160 megawatt by Dec 2008, and it was strong perception that this project would give a massive relief to the common man and wriggle the country out of load-shedding and power crisis.
Confirming the shocking development, a senior Wapda official from Lahore said that the top decision makers in the country have taken a U-turn and decided that the private sector would complete this project of paramount importance. “But under the new decision, the project would be inordinately delayed,” he feared. The price of the project has also increased by Rs 100 million because of the delay, and this a very shocking decision. “The earlier cost of the project was Rs 2.6 billion.”
In the wake of the decision, Wapda had to stop all the spadework to initiate the project. “The government has taken the new decision as the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) will initiate this project,” the official said.
The Board of Investment (BoI) has managed to bring the Qatar Investment Authority in the country and persuaded it to invest in this project. However, sources in the BoI confided to The News that Saifur Rehman, a close aide to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, was a partner of the QIA and had 25 per cent equity in it.
The official said that in the last two months the BoI has held about two meetings with QIA officials and Pakistan has inked an MoU with Qatar to this effect. “Under the MoU, the Qatar Investment Authority has to come up with financial close within three months,” the official said.
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Asked about the status of the project after the government decided to withdraw it from Wapda, he said that Wapda was about to start the project and the Japanese company had been short-listed and its terms and conditions were also evaluated. But after the new decision, all the activities have been stopped.
Replying to a question, he said that in case the QIA failed to come up with